Photo by Allison Shelley/Complete College Photo Library.
Over the past decade, enrollment at public research institutions has grown while public regional institutions have experienced repeated declines. Left unaddressed, this drift carries real consequences: focusing on flagship institutions raises costs for students and states, while the decline of regional colleges diminishes access and opportunities, particularly in rural communities.
NCHEMS believes states can no longer afford to let enrollment patterns evolve passively. Reaching state attainment goals will require states to intentionally leverage the full range of their higher education assets. Without deliberate strategic design, states risk governance reforms that concentrate autonomy at the flagship level, funding formulas insensitive to institutional mission, and collaboration mandates that lack the support needed to succeed on the ground.
This project intends to move states from market drift toward intentional design. In 2026, NCHEMS will publish a series of white papers illuminating how enrollment shifts are reshaping institutional roles and state outcomes. We will follow these analyses with a facilitated workshop at the Lumina State Policy Retreat to translate the evidence into actionable strategies to align governance, funding, and institutional mission with today’s enrollment realities.
* New! White Paper Part Two – Chasing Revenue, Losing Focus: The Financial Stakes of Mission Drift.