Projects

Areas of focus for this project included an analysis to determine the increase in award production needed to advance the postsecondary attainment rate of the region to 60% by 2030. Also of interest was the level of effort required by institutions serving the region to fairly contribute to that goal. The impact of migration on education levels and population characteristics was also investigated.

Estimating accurate service populations for each institution made setting production goals for colleges serving the Detroit region particularly challenging. Also, generating reliable migration estimates for sub-state regions is difficult due to limited sources, smaller sub-populations, and small survey sample sizes.

Analyses were conducted to determine the current and projected service populations for institutions serving the Detroit MSA (six county region) for populations aged 19 and under, 20-24, and 25 and over. Population estimates and projections were extracted from the U.S. Census Bureau and from the Michigan Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. In addition, the number of first-time undergraduates directly from high school by county of origin was extracted from the Michigan School Data web portal (https://mischooldata.org/college-enrollment-destination/). Using the above data, a proportion of the population within the Detroit region by age group and county could be assigned to each institution for 2025 and 2030. Additional production needed was proportioned across institutions according to their current draw of first-time students in each county and their assigned service population.

Migration estimates were derived from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) for the Detroit MSA region. The corresponding migration area within the PUMS files includes the counties that define the Detroit MSA (Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne), as well as the counties of Genesee and Shiawassee. To increase sample sizes and improve the accuracy of the migration estimates, five years of PUMS data were aggregated for the years 2019 through 2023 (most recent). The combination of years makes it possible to disaggregate estimates by education level, age group (25-44, 45-64, 25-64), and race/ethnicity. While most in-migration and out-migration estimates are statistically sound, most net-migration estimates (in-migration less out-migration) are not statistically significant at the 90% confidence level. However, trends and patterns can be observed with reasonable certainty from the data.

The analyses carried out for this project highlight the need for accelerated postsecondary award production in the region to reach the 60% college attainment goal by 2030. The goal of such efforts is to establish a more competitive workforce, thereby increasing positive economic outcomes for the region.

Two documents were provided to the Chamber summarizing the methodologies, sources, and migration results. No final report was published for the project.

• Detroit Regional Goals Methodology and Sources 2025 – Final Methodology Summary
• Detroit Migration Patterns Summary 2019-2023 – Final Summary